Abstract
This paper distils several observations from the historical evolution of cross‐strait relations, compares the ROC‐PRC ties with inter‐Korean and formerly inter‐German relationships, conceptualises the state of the cross‐strait relationship and offers likely scenarios of development. The cross‐strait relationship has gone through three phases ‐ military confrontation, peaceful interaction and tension‐ridden stalemate. It argues that size asymmetry and regime asymmetry make the cross‐strait relationship more intractable and less interconnected than the relationships between the two Koreas and between the two Germanys. Finally, this essay predicts that the cross‐strait relationship is heading toward some sort of modus vivendi that neither ‘convergence’ nor ‘collision’ can totally capture.